← All posts

Britain 2131: What Each Political Party's Policies Means for Our Demographics

The Question Those In Power Will Not Answer

What does Britain look like in 50 years? 100 years? Will the White British be a minority? Are you a racist for even asking? The answer depends entirely on who governs and what they do about immigration and culture. Every political party has a position, but how does this translate to numbers?

Using demographic projection methodology based on the work by Matt Goodwin (Reform member, GBNews host), combined with ONS population data, Boriswave immigration stats and 2021 Census results, I've modelled what happens to every Local Authority District in England and Wales under different political scenarios; from the Greens' open borders to Restore's mass repatriation approach.

I've put all this into an interactive app that you can play around with. The results might surprise you. www.based-data.co.uk.

Details on the methodology are detailed toward the end of the article, but to cut to the chase and get to the fun stuff, let's look at the impact first...

The Six Scenarios

Each political party's immigration stance is modelled using three key parameters: a migration multiplier (relative to current ~680,000/year net migration), a voluntary departure rate (annual percentage of foreign-born who leave), and a White British birth rate boost (pro-natalist policies, or effects of departures on native birth rate).

Current Trend (Baseline)

Migration: 100% of current levels. No departures. No birth boost.

This is what happens if nothing changes. The continuation of 2022–2024 migration levels at approximately 680,000 net per year. No policy intervention, no deportation programme, no changes to the visa system.

Under this scenario, White British falls below 50% nationally before 2061. Muslim population grows from approximately 7% today to over 20% by the end of the century. The foreign-born population swells to unprecedented levels in virtually every LAD outside of rural Wales and Scotland.

This is the trajectory we are currently on.

Labour: Modest Reduction

Migration: 85% of current levels. No departures. No adjustment to White British birth rate.

Labour's "skills-based system with some restrictions" amounts to a modest reduction. Net migration drops slightly but remains at historically unprecedented levels. The demographic trajectory barely changes; the same destination, just slightly slower.

White British still falls below 50%. It just takes a few more years.

Conservatives: Cap at 200k

Migration: 55% of current levels. No departures. No birth boost.

The Conservative pledge to cap net migration. They have not produced a figure, but previous track record suggests it will not be sufficiently low. I am being kind by assuming a NET 200,000 per year figure. This would represent a meaningful reduction; roughly halving current inflows. However, with no deportation programme and no intervention on birth rates, this merely slows the decline.

White British still trends toward minority status, just on a longer timeline. Muslim growth continues via the fertility differential even with reduced immigration.

Greens: Open Borders

Migration: 140% of current levels. No departures. No adjustment to White British birth rate.

The Green Party advocates for the abolition of immigration detention, expanded free movement agreements, and the removal of visa caps. In practice, this means an acceleration of current trends; modelled at 140% of baseline migration.

The demographic transformation accelerates dramatically. White British decline is faster, Muslim growth steeper, and foreign-born populations reach saturation levels in major cities within decades. London, Birmingham, and Leicester become majority foreign-born within a generation.

The country as we know it, is effectively destroyed.

Reform: Near-Zero Net Migration

Migration: 15% of current levels. 2% annual departures. No adjustment to White British birth rate.

Reform UK's "one in, one out" policy freezes work visas, revokes benefits for non-citizens, and aims for near-zero net migration. A modest 2% annual departure rate accounts for some voluntary emigration driven by benefit revocation.

This scenario genuinely changes the trajectory. White British decline slows dramatically and may stabilise. Muslim growth continues but at a much-reduced rate. The foreign-born population begins to shrink as departures outpace the trickle of new arrivals.

Without addressing the fertility differential or implementing active repatriation, the transformation continues; just at a fraction of the current pace.

Restore: Millions Must Leave

Restore Britain's platform represents the most radical departure from the status quo. Their programme includes mass deportation of non-English speakers or those who refuse to integrate, a hostile environment for illegal residents, blacklisting of Islamic-majority countries, abolition of benefits for foreign nationals, and pro-natalist policies for British citizens.

The model accounts for several distinct mechanisms:

Under this scenario, White British rises back toward 90% nationally by 2111. Muslim population peaks at approximately 10% following the 2031 census correction, then declines steadily as mass deportation and self-deportation far outpace fertility-driven growth. Foreign-born population drops to low single digits.

The Bottom Line

Every year of inaction under current policy adds hundreds of thousands to the foreign-born population and accelerates a demographic transformation that no government has ever put to a public vote.

The question isn't whether Britain's demographics will change. Under every scenario except Restore, they will change dramatically. The real question is whether the British public gets a say in how much and how fast.

Explore the projections yourself at www.based-data.co.uk. You can support my work there.

Methodology Notes